Day 8: CFA Level I Probability Basics Study Plan (Quantitative Methods)

Today is a study plan (not official CFA Institute curriculum material) to help you learn probability basics in a practical, test-ready way.

Checklist

• Workspace: Clear your desk; keep only your notes, formula sheet/flashcards, and calculator.
• Materials: 1 notebook page titled “Probability – Rules + Common Traps.”
• Calculator: Set your standard defaults (keep this consistent every day). Practice entering fractions/decimals cleanly.
• Question bank setup: Create a mini-quiz set called “Day 7 Probability” with tags:
• Probability rules
• Conditional probability
• Independence
• Bayes (basic)

Daily Ethics block (15–20 minutes)

Ethics warm-up: Conflicts of interest in everyday life

Restate: Put client/employer interests first; disclose conflicts early and clearly.
Write a 4-line scenario: “A friend asks for ‘sure-shot’ stock tips.” What do you say to avoid misleading them?
Do 5 quick Ethics questions (or 5 short scenario checks). Keep answers in one sentence each.

Main study block (70–90 minutes): Probability fundamentals

Focus on understanding the rules and spotting the keywords that show up in CFA-style questions.

A) Probability language (foundation)

• Random variable vs outcome vs event
• Complement rule: 
• Mutually exclusive events (cannot both happen)

B) Addition and multiplication rules

• Addition rule (general): 
• Mutually exclusive special case: 
• Multiplication rule: 

C) Conditional probability and independence

• 
• Independence test:  (or )
• Common trap: “Independent” is not the same as “mutually exclusive.”

D) Total probability + Bayes (basic intuition)

• Think in “paths” (e.g., different groups that could produce an outcome)
• Bayes’ idea: update your belief when you receive new information
• “Given that…” usually signals conditional probability.

25-question practice target (45–60 minutes)

Timed: aim for ~90 seconds per question.

12 questions: addition/multiplication rules (union/intersection)
6 questions: conditional probability 
2 questions: independence vs mutually exclusive (identify which is which)
5 questions: Ethics warm-up set (or 5 mini scenarios)

After each set of 5 questions: pause for 60 seconds and write the one rule you forgot or misread.

5) Mistake-log prompt (write 1–2 lines per miss)

Use exactly one label per mistake:

• Concept gap
• Formula gap
• Calculator error
• Reading error

(If Ethics errors happen, classify them mainly as Concept gap or Reading error.)

6) Five-question review checkpoint (10 minutes)

Answer without notes:

1. If , what is ?
2. If events are mutually exclusive, what is ?
3. Write the general addition rule for .
4. Write the multiplication rule for .
5. In one sentence: what does “independent” mean in probability?

Tomorrow preview (Day 9) Tomorrow, we move into probability distributions (what mean/variance are telling you, and how to recognize common distribution setups fast).

Day 7: CFA Level I Quant Study Plan: Probability Foundations - 90 days Plan

 Day 7 continues the Quantitative Methods block. After working on descriptive statistics, today’s focus is probability: how to think about uncertainty, possible outcomes, and expected results.

This is a study-plan blog post, not official CFA curriculum material. Use it to organize your preparation, then rely on your CFA materials, notes, or question bank for the actual readings and practice questions.

Checklist

Spend 10-15 minutes preparing your study setup as usual.

• Workspace: Open one clean page titled “Probability Foundations.”
• Materials: Keep your formula sheet, calculator, question bank, and notebook ready.
• Formula focus: Mark formulas for probability rules, conditional probability, expected value, variance, and standard deviation.
• Flash Cards: Keep them at hand or ready to be filled up
• Visual setup: Keep space for probability trees, two-way tables, and simple outcome grids.
• Question bank filter: Select Quant questions tagged probability, expected value, conditional probability, and joint probability.
• Time block: Plan 45 minutes for study, 35 minutes for practice, and 15 minutes for review, at least. 2.5-3 hrs is a better block

Today’s goal is to understand how probabilities combine, not just memorize formulas.

Daily Ethics reading and prep

Spend 10 minutes on Ethics before the Quant block.

Today’s Ethics focus: reasonable basis and probability-based claims.

Read one short scenario where an analyst makes a forecast or probability-based recommendation. Ask yourself:

• Is the forecast supported by reasonable analysis?
• Are assumptions clearly explained?
• Is the analyst overstating certainty?
• Are risks disclosed?
• Could the client misunderstand the probability statement?

Then complete 5 quick Ethics questions or flashcards. If you miss one, classify it mainly as a Concept gap or Reading error.

Main study block

Today’s Quantitative Methods focus is probability foundations.

Study these subtopics:

• Basic probability: The chance that an event occurs.
• Mutually exclusive events: Events that cannot happen at the same time.
• Independent events: Events where one outcome does not affect the other.
• Conditional probability: The probability of one event given that another event has occurred.
• Joint probability: The probability that two events occur together.
• Addition rule: Used when combining probabilities of events.
• Multiplication rule: Used when finding joint probabilities.
• Expected value: The probability-weighted average outcome.
• Variance and standard deviation of outcomes: Measures of uncertainty around expected value.

A useful habit today: write the event labels clearly. Many probability mistakes happen because A, B, , , and  get mixed up.

25-question practice target

Complete 25 questions today.

Use this breakdown to begin with:

4 questions: Basic probability and event definitions
4 questions: Mutually exclusive versus independent events
4 questions: Conditional probability
3 questions: Joint probability and multiplication rule
3 questions: Addition rule and combined probabilities
2 questions: Expected value and probability-weighted outcomes
5 questions: Ethics warm-up on forecasts, reasonable basis, and disclosure

For each Quant question, write down what is given and what is being asked before solving. Probability is easier when the setup is clean.

Mistake-log prompt

After practice, log every missed or guessed question using these four labels:

• Concept gap: I did not understand the probability rule or event relationship.
• Formula gap: I understood the concept but used the wrong formula or setup.
• Calculator error: I made an arithmetic error or entered probability values incorrectly.
• Reading error: I misunderstood the wording, especially “given,” “and,” “or,” “at least,” or “mutually exclusive.”

For Ethics mistakes, use mainly Concept gap or Reading error.

Five-question review checkpoint

End the session by answering these five questions:

1. Can I explain the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events?
2. What does conditional probability mean in plain language?
3. Did I confuse “and” with “or” in any practice question?
4. What was my accuracy on the 20 Quant questions and 5 Ethics questions?
5. Which probability rule should I review tomorrow before moving forward?

     Day 8 will continue Quantitative Methods with probability distributions, normal distribution intuition, expected value, variance, and interpretation.

Day 6: CFA Level I Quant Study Plan: Descriptive Statistics - CFA Level 1 90 Days

 Day 6 - Level 1 CFA in 90 Days

Day 6 begins a new Quantitative Methods block. After several days of time value of money, today shifts into descriptive statistics: how data is summarized, interpreted, and compared. The Quant questions cover mean, weighted mean, geometric mean, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis.

This is a study-plan blog post, not official CFA curriculum material. Use it to structure your preparation, then rely on your CFA materials, notes, or question bank for the actual readings and practice problems.

Checklist

Spend 10-15 minutes preparing your study setup.

Materials: Keep your formula sheet, calculator, question bank, and notebook ready.
Calculator check: Confirm how to enter a small data set and calculate mean and standard deviation.
Formula focus: Mark formulas for mean, weighted mean, geometric mean, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and range.
Flash cards: Keep your flash cards handy or ready to be prepared
Question bank filter: Select Quant questions tagged statistics, descriptive statistics, measures of central tendency, and dispersion.
Time block: Plan for study, review and questions, 2-3 hours 

Today’s goal is to understand what each statistic tells you, not just how to calculate it.

Daily Ethics reading and prep

Spend 10-15  minutes on Ethics before the Quant block.

Today’s Ethics focus: misrepresentation and data presentation.

Read one short scenario where an analyst presents performance results, charts, or statistics to a client. Ask yourself:

• Is the analyst showing the full picture?
• Are any numbers being cherry-picked?
• Are assumptions clearly explained?
• Could the presentation mislead the client?
• What disclosure would make the communication fairer?

Then complete 5 quick Ethics questions or flashcards. If you miss one, classify it mainly as a Concept gap or Reading error.

Main study block

Today’s Quantitative Methods focus is descriptive statistics.

Subtopics to study

Day 5: CFA Level I Quant Study Plan: Rates, Compounding, and TVM Practice - 90 Days to CFA

Day 5 of the CFA Level I study plan is focused on rates, compounding, and mixed time value of money practice. The goal today is not to memorize more formulas. The goal is to learn how to identify the problem type before touching the calculator. You have already worked through present value, future value, annuities, and cash-flow timing. Today, the focus is on rates, compounding, discounting, and mixed time value of money questions.

Disclaimer: This is a study-plan blog post, not official CFA curriculum material. Use it to organize your preparation, then rely on your CFA materials, notes, or question bank for the actual readings and problem sets.

Checklist before starting

Spend 10 minutes setting up before you begin.

• Calculator reset: Clear TVM memory. Check decimal places, payments per year, compounding periods per year, and BEGIN/END mode.
• Formula sheet: Open the section on effective annual rate, periodic rate, present value, future value, annuities, and perpetuities.
• Flash Cards - Keep them nearby, ready to fill or filled ones
• Timeline habit: Keep one blank page only for cash-flow timelines.
• Question bank filter: Select time value of money questions that mix single sums, annuities, rates, and compounding.
• Timer: Use three blocks: 40 minutes study, 35 minutes questions, 15 minutes review.

Your prep goal today is simple: reduce mechanical errors before they become repeated habits.

Daily Ethics reading and prep

Spend 10-15 minutes on Ethics before the Quant block.

Today’s Ethics focus: integrity and professional judgment.

Read one short scenario involving an analyst who receives pressure from a supervisor, client, or colleague. Ask yourself:

• Is the analyst being pushed to ignore evidence?
• Are facts and opinions clearly separated?
• Is the recommendation based on reasonable analysis?
• Is there any misleading communication?
• What should the analyst do before acting?

Then complete 5 Ethics warm-up questions or review 5 Ethics flashcards. Log any mistake as a Concept gap or Reading error.

Main study block

Today’s Quantitative Methods focus is mixed time value of money practice.

Study these subtopics:

• Nominal rate: The quoted annual rate before adjusting for compounding.
• Periodic rate: The rate applied each period.
• Effective annual rate: The annual rate after compounding is considered.
• Compounding frequency: Annual, semiannual, quarterly, monthly, or continuous compounding.
• Discounting: Moving future cash flows back to the present.
• Compounding: Moving present cash flows forward to the future.
• Perpetuities: Level payments that continue indefinitely.
• Mixed TVM questions: Problems where you must decide whether to solve for PV, FV, PMT, N, or I/Y.

Today’s main skill is diagnosis. Before calculating, ask: “What variable is the question really asking me to solve?”

25-question practice target

Complete 25 questions today.

Use this breakdown:

• 4 questions: Nominal, periodic, and effective annual rates
• 4 questions: Compounding and discounting single sums
• 4 questions: Ordinary annuity and annuity due review
• 3 questions: Perpetuity calculations
• 3 questions: Mixed TVM variable identification
• 2 questions: Calculator setup and sign convention checks
• 5 questions: Ethics warm-up or scenario questions

For each Quant question, write down the unknown variable before solving: PV, FV, PMT, N, or I/Y. This one step can prevent many wrong answers.

Five-question review checkpoint

End the session by answering these five questions:

1. Can I explain the difference between nominal, periodic, and effective annual rates?
2. Did I identify the unknown variable before solving each TVM problem?
3. Which caused more errors today: rate conversion, cash-flow timing, or calculator input?
4. What was my accuracy on the 20 Quant questions and the 5 Ethics questions?
5. Which TVM concept should I revisit before moving into statistics and probability?

Mistake log - As we have been doing so far, create a mistake log book. It will be easy to refer back to those

After practice, record every missed or guessed question using these four labels:

• Concept gap: I did not understand the question's underlying idea.
• Formula gap: I understood the idea but forgot the correct formula or setup.
• Calculator error: I entered values incorrectly, used the wrong mode, forgot to clear memory, or made a sign error.
• Reading error: I misunderstood the wording, timing, rate, or variable being asked.

For Ethics mistakes, use mainly Concept gap or Reading error.

Day 6 begins the next Quantitative Methods block: descriptive statistics, measures of central tendency, dispersion, probability foundations, and distribution basics.